တရုပ္ႏိုင္ငံေလာက္ စြမ္းအင္ေပၚလစီေကာင္းလို႕ သူ႕ေလာက္ေစ်းခ်ိဳေအာင္ ဘယ္ႏိုင္ငံမွ လွ်ပ္စစ္ မထုတ္ႏိုင္ပါဘူး။ ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံက မိမိဖာသာ လွ်ပ္စစ္ ဖူလံုေအာင္ ရွိတဲ့ပညာအစြမ္းအစနဲ႕ ၾကိဳးစားေနဆဲကာလမွာ တရုပ္ႏိုင္ငံက ပိုလွ်ံေနတဲ့ လွ်ပ္စစ္ကို ၀ယ္သံုးတာက ေစ်းသက္သာပါမယ္။ ဒါေပမဲ့ ေရႊျမန္မာတို႕က ကိုယ့္ဖာသာကိုယ္ လွ်ပ္စစ္အေျမာက္အမ်ား ထုတ္လုပ္ခ်င္ေနပါတယ္။ နည္းပညာ၅ခု Hydro, Fossil, Wind, Solar, Nuclear အားလံုးမွာ တရုပ္ႏိုင္ငံက ၂၀၃၅ အထိ ဦးေဆာင္ပါမယ္။ ဓါတ္ေငြ႕ CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine ကေတာ့ တရုပ္ဦးမေဆာင္ႏိုင္ပါဘူး လို႕ စာတန္းရွင္က ေကာက္ခ်က္ခ်ထားပါတယ္။
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ေနာ္ေ၀းႏိုင္ငံ Norwegian School of Economics စီးပြားေရး မဟာဘြဲ႕အတြက္ ၂၀၁၅ ျပဳစုတဲ့ စာတန္း ျဖစ္ပါတယ္၊ စိတ္၀င္စားသူမ်ား ေလ့လာဖို႕ေကာင္းပါတယ္။
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Liberalized Cost of Energy LCOE
LCOE ($/kWh) is one of the most commonly used measure of cost of electricity for policy marker, research institutions and corporations that aim to derive long term investment
strategies. It is used to compare lifetime costs of electricity across technologies and countries.
LCOE is also a “break even” price that investors have to charge on electricity output in order to justify the investment by making the project NPV to be zero. Therefore by comparing wholesale electricity prices and LCOE it can be concluded whether a particular technology has reached grid parity or not.
Basic formula to calculate LCOE for any technology:
𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸 = (𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛)/
(𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛)
The major components of lifetime cost of generating electricity from a power plant can be broken down into CAPEX, Operating and Maintenance (O&M) and fuel costs. Depending on the purpose of study, technology under focus and regulatory regime of projects, other costs such as interests, tax, salvage value, carbon emission costs etc could also be included in the calculation of LCOE.
The IEA and OECD used the following formula for LCOE in their cost projection:
LCOE = P.Electricity = ∑t((Investmentt + O&Mt + Fuelt + Carbont + Decommissioningt)*(1+r)^t)
/ (∑t(Electricityt*(1+r)^t))
Where Electricityt: The amount of electricity produced in year “t”;
P.Electricity: The constant price of electricity;
(1+r)^t: The discount factor for year “t”;
Investmentt: Investment costs in year “t”;
O&Mt: Operations and maintenance costs in year “t”;
Fuelt: Fuel costs in year “t”;
Carbont: Carbon costs in year “t”;
Decommissioningt: Decommissioning cost in year “t”.
(International Energy Agency, OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, 2010)
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Conclusion
As part of the broader project commissioned by Statkraft, this particular study is important because China is going to be the price setting country for all five technologies studies except CCGT in future.
China is already supplying the majority of solar PV panels in the global market today. It also deploys the most solar PV projects annually and it is expected to do so in the coming decades.
China is also installing the largest number of wind projects in the world. With its massive excess capacity, continued innovation and quality improvement, it is expected to export more and more onshore wind turbines.
Given its impressive dominance of solar PV panels in just limited time, there is a very high chance that China will dominate the world’s wind turbine market as well due to its cost competiveness.
Gas fired power technology is expected to remain as a marginal power generation technology in China due to higher LNG prices and therefore higher LCOE. Most of the planned CCGT plants will be deployed in the east part of China to replace coal fired power plants to reduce air pollution. Therefore most gas fired plants will be combined heat and gas plants that will be deployed in the northeast of China.
China is already exporting advanced coal fired technology and equipment to many countries.
Given its massive scale of future deployment and the fact that China has developed advanced coal technology with its own intellectual property at much lower costs, China is expected to dominate world’s coal fired technology in the decades to come.
Nuclear and high speed train are the two pillars of Chinese high end machinery export that is being one of the highest priority for the state. China has the largest pipeline of nuclear power plants in construction and it has developed its own nuclear technology. With the engineering experience, human capital and financing from Chinese banks, China will export and be the dominant player in the global nuclear market as well.
Modelling results show that coal will continue to be the cheapest form of generation up to 2035 without taking into consideration of carbon prices. Nuclear is the second cheapest for of energy right now, but is expected to be surpassed by onshore wind very soon. Solar PV will see the largest decline of cost approaching 2035, though it will still be higher than that of wind, nuclear
and coal. CCGT will be the most expensive form of energy in 2035, largely due to higher capital costs and higher LNG prices in Asia.
The results are in line with most other studies, though the predicted range is usually quite wide in these studies. They are also in line with current Chinese energy policies. China is promoting cheap renewables such as wind and solar in an unprecedented scale. However, it is still developing advanced coal fired power technology and nuclear to meet future energy demand and reduce carbon emissions. However, it does not have an ambitious plan to build more gas
fired power plants due to its much higher costs of energy.
Due to limitations of the model, inputs, accuracy of data etc, the modeling results should not be treated as an exact prediction of future cost development trajectory. Instead the overall trend is more important than the exact numbers.
Given the limitations, further research opportunities lie in the more comprehensive treatment of modelling assumptions and inputs. For instance, the static assumptions of capacity factor, WACC, learning rates, global and local contents etc could all vary as time passes.
Other cost items such as taxes, depreciation, subsidies etc could also be factored into the model to derive a more realistic cost prediction of these power generation technologies.
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Abbreviations
BNEF Bloomberg New Energy Finance
BoP Balance of Plant
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
CCS Carbon Capture and Storage
CHP Combined Heat Power
COD Commercial Operational Date
CPV Concentrating Photovoltaics
CSP Concentrating Solar Power Plants
EIA Energy Information Administration
EPC Engineering, Procurement and Construction
IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
IDC Interest During Construction
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IEA International Energy Agency
IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency
IRR Internal Rate of Return
LCOE Liberalized Cost of Energy
NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory
OECD Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development
OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
OPEX Operational Expense
O&M Operation and Maintenance
PV Photovoltaic
TOC Total Overnight Cost
WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital
WEC World Energy Council
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Outlook of Power Generation Technology Cost in China
A Master Thesis Written in Collaboration with Statkraft AS
Baoqing Miao
Norwegian School of Economics
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တရုပ္ျပည္ ဂ်ီဒီပီ တိုးတက္မႈဂရပ္ကို ၾကည့္ရင္ လွ်ပ္စစ္ဂရပ္ေနာက္မွာပဲ လိုက္ပါတယ္။ ဒါေၾကာင့္ ေဒၚေအာင္ဆန္းစုၾကည္ ကိုယ္တိုင္ လွ်ပ္စစ္က႑ ကိုယ္တိုင္ဦးစီး ေနပါျပီ။ တတ္ၾကြမ္းသူ တစ္ဦး လက္ထဲ ထည့္ရပါမယ္။ ဥပမာ တရုပ္ျပည္ဆိုရင္ ေခါင္းေဆာင္ Li Peng အခ်ိန္ျပည္ စြမ္းအင္ေပၚလစီကို ကိုင္တြယ္ပါတယ္။ တျပိဳင္ထဲ လယ္ယာက႑ကို ဦးစားေပးကိုင္တြယ္ဖို႕ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ တျခား က႑ေတြက ပုဂၢလိက လုပ္ပိုင္ခြင့္ ဌာနဆိုင္ရာေတြ ၀င္မရႈပ္ေအာင္ လုပ္ႏိုင္ရင္ အလိုလို အိုေက သြားမွာပါ။ ဧရာမ LNG လုပ္စားတဲ့ စီမံကိန္းေတြလဲ ၄ခုကေန တစ္ခုေလာက္ပဲ ေရွာ ့ခ်ရမ်ာ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ ဒီ သံုးသပ္ခ်က္နဲ႕ မူရင္း စာတန္းကို ေဒၚေအာင္ဆန္းစုၾကည္ ဆီ ေရာက္ေအာင္ ပို႕ေပးရပါမယ္။ ဒု၀န္ၾကီး ကိုထြန္းႏိုင္ ဆီလည္း ပို႕ရပါမယ္။ လႊတ္ေတာ္မွာ စြမ္းအင္ ေပၚလစီ ကိုင္တြယ္ႏိုင္မဲ့ အာဏာရွိသူ အင္ဂ်င္နီယာ (ဥပမာ ဦး၀င္းခိုင္) အထူး လိုအပ္ေနပါတယ္။ ဦး၀င္းခိုင္ တရုပ္ျပည္ ေခါင္းေဆာင္ Li Peng နီးပါး လုပ္ႏိုင္မလား...?
my two cent view...
Ref: zawAung FB:https://www.facebook.com/755653471/posts/10155544769683472/
